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Impact of novel therapies on multiple myeloma survival in the US: Current and future outcomes.
Background: Multiple myeloma (MM) survival improved dramatically with the introduction of new therapies in the mid-late 2000s. These therapies essentially transformed MM from an acute condition to a potentially manageable chronic disease. The impact of further advances in MM therapy is uncertain, but can be projected by analyzing historical data and expected future clinical trial outcomes. This study uses a novel approach to estimate current and future patient outcomes in MM. Methods: For the historical perspective (1980-2008), we calculated overall survival for patients diagnosed in a given year (cohort OS) by analyzing data from Surveillance, Epidemiology & End Results (SEER). For the predictive analysis, we calculated cohort OS using a patient flow model by integrating data from clinical trials, cancer registries and demographics as well as assumptions from key opinion leaders. We simulated progression of each cohort based on treatment rates and time spent in each line of therapy. The resulting OS curves were calibrated to 19 years of historical data. Results: The median cohort OS in the US remained relatively static from 1980–2001 at ~30 months, but increased by ~43% to 43 months in 2008. The median cohort OS is expected to continue rising to ~72 months in 2022, which represents ~67% improvement from 2008 and ~140% improvement from 2001 (TABLE 1). The life expectancy of patients diagnosed with MM in 2022 would thus be ~75 years, but will still be shorter than the ~86 year life expectancy of the general population at the median diagnosis age of ~69 years. Conclusions: This analysis highlights the dramatic improvements in MM survival since 2000 and the expected improvement in the future, demonstrating the transformative impact and value of novel therapies. Over the next few years, with better scientific understanding of MM and the use of novel drug regimens, we expect to see additional improvement of ~67% in OS for MM patients. Nevertheless, there is opportunity to further bridge the life expectancy gap between the general population and MM patients.
|Historical OS (months)||28||30||43|
|Predicted OS (months)||57||72|